Fantasy Basketball Help

Alright, let me fill you guys in on how I do my rankings for fantasy basketball. My friend Jason and I came up with 3 different equations(one for guards, forwards, and centers) that use preseason projections(we take them from 3 different sources then find the average) and our own rating (based on injuries, talent and opportunity). For fear of boring you I will not put them here but the reason there are three different equations is certain statistics are more equitable based on positions. Our guard equations have assists, 3's, and steals as much more valuable based on the fact that those are the stats that are most valuable for guards. Rebounds and blocks are something that should not matter as much for guards but they should for centers and forwards. 3's should not matter at all for centers, but FG% is extremely important for centers. Percentages are always the determining factor in fantasy leagues, so they will be extremely important in all the positional rankings but they are based on postional averages. For instance, 45% from the floor is really mediocre for a center, but for a guard that is a solid number. Health is always important and we just use what we here from websites, magazines and sources. For instance we here Gilbert Arenas is looking great and is completely healthy and ready to go. The same goes for Marcus Camby and Elton Brand. Word is still in the air about Kevin Garnett so we use that in the equation.
Just to let you guys know by using this system in other fantasy sports I am 1st place in both of my football leagues this season. I won one of them last season. I won my baseball league this year and won 2 of 3 basketball leagues last year. So the system works. Of course draft who you want to, that is what fantasy is all about, these are just to help you get a grasp on who the important guys are. So without further ado...

Guards:
The rankings heavily favor 3's, assists and steals. Points are not as important becuase points are the most abundant statistic in fantasy basketball. So the ranking will obviously favor point guards over shooting guards. Shooting guards really only give you points and 3's. There are exceptions(really only 2 on 3) but that is why a guy like Kevin Martin is not ranked very high because he gives literally nothing besides points and threes. He is superemly overrated. Now if you draft a guy like Calderon who will have a hard time getting to 14 ppg then it makes sense to draft Kevin Martin but I would suggest letting someone else take the Blue Light Special.

Tier 1
Chris Paul PG
Dwayne Wade SG
Deron Williams PG
Gilbert Arenas PG
Steve Nash PG
Tier 2
Baron Davis PG
Jose Calderon PG
Devin Harris PG
Kobe Bryant SG
Andre Iguodala SG/SF
Joe Johnson SG/SF
Tier 3
Chauncey Billups PG
Rajon Rondo PG
Brandon Roy SG
Monta Ellis PG/SG
Eric Gordon SG
Jason Kidd PG
Derrick Rose SG
Kevin Martin SG
Vince Carter SG
Lou Williams PG
Tier 4
Jason Richardson SG
O.J. Mayo SG
Russell Westbrook PG
John Salmons SG/SF
Leandro Barbosa PG/SG
J.R. Smith SG
Andre Miller PG
Aaron Brooks PG
Rodney Stuckey PG
Ben Gordon SG
Michael Redd SG
Jameer Nelson PG
Courtney Lee SG
Ray Allen SG
Jason Terry SG
Ronnie Brewer SG
Mike Bibby PG
Ramon Sessions PG
T.J. Ford PG
Mo Williams PG
Tier 5
Raymond Felton PG
DJ Augustine PG
Mike Conley PG
Mario Chalmers PG
Kirk Hinrich PG
James Harden SG

(I'll just comment on some key guys after the rankings)
*Gilbert Arenas is too high? Our system actually put him second among guards but we thought we should bump him down a bit. So now you're thinking we're cooks and the system doesn't work. But let me tell you what we found out about Gilbert first, he is set to do things that he has never done before. With all the depth on the Wizards and the weapons that Flip Saunders' has, and the offensive system, it all points to Gilbert becoming a dishing machine. Guys like Antawn Jamison, Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, Mike Miller, DeShawn Stevenson have all be allstars or starters in this league. Gilbert's job is to make this group score close 110 points a game. Flip has said that he is not going to spell Gilbert anymore than he would because of his injury. He says this because Gil is not injured and doesn't need to be treated like it. He came back healthy in February but didn't play because, well, what's the point. Chauncey Billups' best years were with Flip as the coach, the guy just has a great offensive system that utilizes guards that can get in the paint and dish. A serious ceiling on Gil this year would be 11 assists and 26 points. I don't think he'll get there but that's what the Agent's ceiling is. Projections we have will put him at over 8 assists with 2 steals and well over 150 threes. In the preseason he has averaged closer to 9 assists while playing less than 30 minutes a game. I predict a top 5 overall performance for him. Think CP3, Lebron, Wade, Granger and Gilbert.

*Steve Nash will be Nashian this year. There isn't much to say other than when Gentry took over for the underacheiving and boring Suns their pace of play went through the roof. We are talking they played faster than when Mike D was coaching in the desert. Nash did nothing over the offseason, no international basketball or soccer or moped riding. Nash is about as automatic from the field and with his dishing as Pacman Jones is automatic with his...well...automatic(bullets baby). The health plus the system plus Amare back makes me excited to see this team and Nash again. So expect him fighting CP3 for the assist title and that is about as valuable as anything in fantasy basketball.

*Jose Calderon is fantasy gold. He is the guy that casual fans pass over because the first thing they look at is points and 3's. But last season he finished 3rd in pure shooting(which is FG%,3PT% and FT%). Just for that he would be a great starting PG but he also dishes like crazy. With the all new Raptors this year Jose is THE MAN at point he should flirt with double digit assists and should get to triple digit 3's. He won't score a ton but like I said scoring is the most overated thing...in fantasy. % and asists win you leagues, this guy will win you leagues.

*Brandon Roy is ranked behind Rondo, and just ahead of Monta? Yes and we seriously moved him up a couple spots becuase of threats from a couple friends. The guy was just another dude, then he was a nice little secret in the NBA, then he became underrated, then he became overrated and now he is Bromancing his way to top 2nd round territory in drafts. Honestly Roy is a much better real life player than fantasy player. SG are great in real baskeball but in fantasy they don't do a whole lot. They score and shoot threes, and most leagues have 8 or more categories. There is no SG not named Dwayne who will even sniff 8 assists per game this year. Yet there are about a dozen PG that will do that while getting 1.5 steals and scoring like a SG. Roy has always been the PG in Portland, Steve Blake was just a white guy on the floor. But now with Andre Miller and his dishing abilities I don't see Roy getting to 4.5 assists a game. Which means he is just a guy that will score 22 points with nice(not great) percentages and average steals. He is just not worth the place in drafts when you could get a guy like Baron Davis much later who will score as many points but put up twice the assists and steals.

*Louis Williams is the sleeper guard of the season. That is what every website is saying and we are just conforming. There is no one else, they let Andre Miller go, they didn't even fly a free agent out to the city of brotherly love because they love the guy. This would be his rookie year if he went to college for 4 years, the long line of examples of those guys that breakout in their 'rookie' season is longer than Al Davis' to-do list in the offseason. He is taking over for a team with great scorers such as Igy, Elton, Young and Kapono. It is hard to predict numbers but the 36 minutes a game he will be inheriting means that 4.2 assists is the base, and if he finishes at that mark it will be a major disapointment. I believe based on his 36 minute averages and his style of play(he is a scoring machine that runs until he can't breathe anymore) I think he should be a 15 5 guy. He also has great defensive insticts and can straight light it up from the three. Expect 100+ threes, 5 assists 1.5 stls and 16.5 points. His FG% could use some help but there is a reason he is being taken super late in drafts. No Risk/High Reward, how many guys are there like that.

Forwards:
Points are rated higher here because this is where you should get your scorers. But this is the position that should give you a little of everything. Usually if you have a great team it will mirror your Forwards. Because blocks are the rarest of statistic you will see guys like Josh Smith rated extremely high. Rebounds, for Forwards, are about 500% higher than guards. A guy I want to quickly talk about is Andre Iguodala. At first our system but him barely in the top ten for forwards and so we decided that he must be overated because he has been put as a late first rounder, early second. But when we put him in our guard equation he turned out to be a top 10 guard. This is extremely rare. In a system that will rate Point Guards much higher than Shooting Guards and Power Forwards higher than Small Forwards it is so rare that a shooting guard/small forward like Andre is top ten in both. Take with that what you will. So here we go

Tier 1
Lebron James SF
Danny Granger SF
Kevin Durant SF
Tier 2
Chris Bosh PF
Pau Gasol PF/C
Josh Smith PF/SF
Dirk Nowitzki PF
Elton Brand PF/C
Andre Iguodala SF/SG
Tier 3
Kevin Garnett PF
LaMarcus Aldridge PF
Gerald Wallace SF
Troy Murphy PF
Carmelo Anthony SF
Tyrus Thomas PF
David West PF
Paul Pierce SF
Caron Butler SF
Shawn Marion PF/SF
Wilson Chandler SF
Tier 4
Charlie Villanueva PF
Carlos Boozer PF
Antawn Jamison PF
Al Harrington PF
Rashard Lewis PF
Jeff Green PF
Rudy Gay SF
Luis Scola PF/C
Boris Diaw PF
Captain(not any more) Jack SF
Tayshaun Prince SF
Hedo Turkologh SF
Anthony Randolph PF
Michael Beasley SF
Tier 5
Jason Thompson PF
Josh Howard SF
Luol Deng SF
Zach Randolph PF
Ron Artest SF/SG
Thaddeus Young SF/PF
Richard Jefferson SF
Blake Griffin PF
Kevin Love PF
Marvin Williams SF

*The fact that Elton Brand ranked above guys like Melo, Paul Pierce and David West might surpise people but Elton has always been a 20 10 guy that will always be close to 2 blocks a game. Guys like David West do have the same Pts and Reb numbers but will offer less in blocks assists and steals. The upside of a healthy Brand is much higher than any upside David West and Paul Pierce will give. There is something in predictability but if you want to win a league you have to take risks. Yes he is an injury risk but like I said the upside is undeniable, if you draft him you draft him expecting 70+ games and if he gets there he will undoubtly get you the stats I pointed out earlier.
Gilbert and Elton's rankings in other sites(such as espn, nba.com, and fanball) are a lot like Vegas lines in Football. They can't put the line too low on the favorite because there won't be any action on the other side. Notre Dame is playing USC this weekend in Notre Dame and the Irish are 10 point dogs. That is staggering. But if Vegas put that line at 3 or 4 why would you pick Notre Dame if the reward is not as great as the risk. The same thing goes for Elton, if he is rated in ESPN as a 2nd rounder or in auction legues he is valued at 45$ no one will take that. I wouldn't take it and I see him as a top 5 guy if healthy. So that makes him a nice and cheap 23$ man with 50$ value. We believe the reward far outweighs the risk, especially where you have to draft him. And this is a pick that can win you a draft and spending 10% of your budget on a guy that could get injured won't kill your team either

*Melo is ranked lower than a lot of other sources rank him. We do this because of his history. It's a small secret but Carmelo has missed an average of 13 games a season the last three seasons. He doesn't shoot a high field goal percentage, and he hovers under 80% from the line. He is a premier scorer but his points have dropped from 29 to 26 to 23 the last three seasons. He gives you above average stats in all other categories but nothing that will significantly help your team. under 7 boards, under one 3 a game, under one block, under 4 assists. He's a solid productive player but the lack of any extreme help in any catergory other than scoring and the lack of consistent games played means he is not a top tier fantasy player.

*Wilson Chandler, get him. Straight up he will be a top 10 SF this year. Last season he has a block and a steal a game along with close to 6 boards and 1.5 3's a game. Mike D'Antoni + athletic 6-8 forward that can shoot the three and played in every game last year = breakout candidate of the year. The man has no flaws. He is Carmelo with twice the 3's and comes 10 rounds later.

*Josh Smith was a fringe first rounder last year because of his 3 blocks a game with 8 boards and 1.5 steals in the 07-08 season. He was superhyped and then he didn't exceed his expectations. But the guy still gave you 1.5 steals and blocks a game while shooting 49.4% from the field. It was dissapointing that his points, boards and assists dropped but right now he is extremely undervalued. The consistency the 2 seasons before last was unbelievable. So what can you expect. Based on a lot of projection systems most think he is in between his 07-8 season and last season. I tend to agree and if so you will get him at bargain price. He is going behind guys like Carlos Boozer and Troy Murphy! By the way he is 23 years old. Younger than Lebron, Iggy, Melo and Granger. Melo's breakout season was while he was 23 years old. Danny Granger just broke out at 25, and JR Smith just had a breakout at 23 years old. All those guys were basically rookies based on college experience. This would be Josh Smith's rookie season if he did his 4 years in college. It was Granger's rookie year last year. Don't worry he will get the stats that cover up other guys' flaws on your team.

*Luis Scola is the starting PF for the Rockets. Scola got 9 boards with 14 points last season while shooting 53% from the field. This was while playing under 25 minutes. So it is definitly forseeable with his skill on the post and his rebounding prowess to see him getting to 20 10. Not saying it will happen but it is worth the risk because all of his numbers last year will see large improvements.

Centers
Here boards and blocks are king. Assists, steals and 3's have no real say in the rankings. You want your big man to get double digit boards, 2 blocks a game and shoot better than 50% from the field. The stats that will determine close rankings are points and FT%.

Tier 1
Dwight Howard
Al Jefferson
Amar'e Stoudemire
Brook Lopez
Tier 2
Marcus Camby
David Lee
Al Horford
Emeka Okafor
Nene
Spencer Hawes
Tier 3
Shaq
Andrew Bynum
Andris Biedrins
Mehmet Okur
Andrea Bargnani
Jermaine O'neal
Joakim Noah
Tier 4
Andrew Bogut
Marc Gasol
Sheed
Tyson Chandler
Brad Miller

*Dwight Howard could be the best fantasy player in basketball. But he gives you the most negative impact at the free throw line. Because of the amount of shots he takes he will single handedly destroy that stat in Roto leagues. If you are in a head to head league you can punt the category so he's more valuable in those legaues. If Dwight could ever get close to 70% he would be a top 3 guy. You can't deny the blocks, boards, points and FG% but just know that if you draft him you better own Nash, Chauncey and Calderon just to be competitive in the FT% category in Roto leagues.

*Brook Lopez will be on all of my teams. In auction leagues he goes for around 20 bucks while Amare goes for 45-50 dollars. He is maybe the best bargain in the draft because of the lack of Centers. The 30th ranked guard is Jameer Nelson. The 30th ranked center is Nenad Krstic. Jameer Nelson will be owned in every league this season, Krstic will never be owned. So the fact that you can get Lopez where you can get him is great. In his rookie year he blocked 2 shots a game while grabbing 8 boards and scoring over 13 points a game. He also shoots over 53% from the field but his true value is his FT%. He was great in college and he will be consistently around 80% for his career. The only other center in the top 15 to sniff the 80% mark is Amar'e, so it is extremely valuable. Expect 9+ boards, 2+ blocks and 17 points a game. Those numbers would be better than Amar'e's 06-07 season and thus should make Brook a staple in fantasy basketball for the rest of his career.

*Al Horford is a great value. He is everything you want in a center, 10 boards 1.5 blocks and very nice assist numbers for a center. He did not grow as much as we all would have liked last year but every stat increased slightly and I think we can expect big time better numbers based on my college/rookie theory. This is his rookie year if he stayed in college for 4 years and like I said above that screams breakout.

*Spencer Hawes has a new coach. The coach loves an up tempo style and Spencer has super talent. His stats after the all star break were 14 points, 8.5 boards and 2.5 assists on 51% shooting. Like every other center his weakness is his FT% but the fact that you can get this guy with your last pick or for 1$ in auction leagues is amazing. He will also win you a close 3 point category because he will give you over a half a three a game. Love Spencer in the new up tempo Kings.

*Nene came back from cancer last year. If he had a down year everyone would have understood. Instead the guy was a fantasy force. He lead centers in steals, he was second in the NBA in FG% and did all the other center stats well, 8 boards 1.3 blocks. There has never been a question about his talent just his durability. His work ethic was always questioned and I think that is where the injuries came from. But with his cancer experience he appreciates life and tries to stay in great shape. Word from Nugget camp is Karl wants his big guy a lot more touches a game. And if you watched him play last year you see why. He might have the best low post moves of any big guy not named Al. He goes left, right, he can go face up, fade away, power, finese. He has it all and I think he will start at center at the all star game this year.